I feel like the Count on Sesame Street
Every time I turn around, it seems as if another person has announced their candidacy. Let's imagine that Judge Thomas is not elected on Tuesday. We have at last count two candidates from Pearl River County, one from Marion County, and nine (not counting Judge Thomas) from Hattiesburg (Forrest and Lamar Counties). The electoral math has been endlessly dissected by the candidates: 2500 votes may be enough to get into the runoff; 5,000 votes could possibly win outright, if turnout is depressed.
In 2006, the last year we had a wide-open seat (Post 4 was created that year), 45,839 voters cast votes in that election for Post 4. 2006 General Election results for Post 4. I inexplicably got more votes in Pearl River County than anywhere else, which tells you something about either my name, or Pearl River County. The Place 2 election that year, which was contested between Judge Dale, Win Pittman, and Jay Jernigan, had 46,017 votes cast. 2006 General Election results for Post 2. The Post One race that year, which was uncontested, had 40,763 votes cast, all for Judge Thomas. 2006 General Election results for Post 1. The Post Three race that year, also uncontested this year, had 40,695 votes cast. 2006 General Election results for Post 3.
What does this mean for this year? Well, Pearl River County has had the most growth in population since the previous election, although we won't know how much until after the election. Forrest and Lamar Counties have both grown. We can expect about a 45,000 voter turnout at least. There may be more due to voter interest in the Taylor/Palazzo/Hampton race.
Of those votes, a plurality will likely be cast for Judge Thomas. Back when there were only six candidates two weeks ago, Judge Thomas was expected to get a majority. With a rumored twelve candidates, that expectation has shifted to Judge Thomas getting a plurality, but not winning outright. Assuming Judge Thomas gets 50% of the vote, one vote shy of winning, that means that there are 22,500 votes to be divided twelve ways. Since most of the candidates are from the Hattiesburg area, Forrest and Lamar Counties will likely not be electing this Judge.
In 2006, the last year we had a wide-open seat (Post 4 was created that year), 45,839 voters cast votes in that election for Post 4. 2006 General Election results for Post 4. I inexplicably got more votes in Pearl River County than anywhere else, which tells you something about either my name, or Pearl River County. The Place 2 election that year, which was contested between Judge Dale, Win Pittman, and Jay Jernigan, had 46,017 votes cast. 2006 General Election results for Post 2. The Post One race that year, which was uncontested, had 40,763 votes cast, all for Judge Thomas. 2006 General Election results for Post 1. The Post Three race that year, also uncontested this year, had 40,695 votes cast. 2006 General Election results for Post 3.
What does this mean for this year? Well, Pearl River County has had the most growth in population since the previous election, although we won't know how much until after the election. Forrest and Lamar Counties have both grown. We can expect about a 45,000 voter turnout at least. There may be more due to voter interest in the Taylor/Palazzo/Hampton race.
Of those votes, a plurality will likely be cast for Judge Thomas. Back when there were only six candidates two weeks ago, Judge Thomas was expected to get a majority. With a rumored twelve candidates, that expectation has shifted to Judge Thomas getting a plurality, but not winning outright. Assuming Judge Thomas gets 50% of the vote, one vote shy of winning, that means that there are 22,500 votes to be divided twelve ways. Since most of the candidates are from the Hattiesburg area, Forrest and Lamar Counties will likely not be electing this Judge.
posted by Unknown at 12:36 PM
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