Campaign finance

The first round of campaign finance reports for most of the candidates have been filed.  I've just had to file two 48 hour reports on my push-cards, which were in-kind contributions from clients.  It's a fascinating process to see how the candidates are amassing their funds.

A brief analysis of the Supreme Court's reasoning

I've read the decision, and it boils down to the issue of administrative review and enjoining an election.  The legal standard that the plaintiffs had to meet to enjoin the election is to show that the statute regarding the write-in was ambiguous, and that the interpretation of the Board of Election Commissioners was not a permissible construction of the statute.  In other words, was the decision of the Board of Election Commissioners arbitrary and capricious?

Of the Supreme Court justices, eight agreed that the write-in election is a permissible construction of the statute.  Justice Randolph felt that the decision of the Board was debatable because he believed, as I do, that appointment followed by a special election next year during the general election, is the appropriate remedy for a judicial vacancy, but a decision of an administrative board that is fairly debatable is by definition not arbitrary and capricious.  Justice Pierce, who partly joined in Justice Randolph's decision, opined, as I did, that the write-in statute does not apply to the 13th Circuit  Court District election, although for entirely different reasons than I do.    Basically, Justice Pierce's opinion turned neatly on the fact that Judge Evans's name is NOT on the ballot, and thus 23-15-365 does not apply, since it contemplates that the person on the ballot is not eligible to be elected due to death, resignation, or withdrawal from the ballot.  Under Justice Pierce's reasoning, the write-in provision may actually apply to the 10th Chancery Court District election.  Justice Dickinson did not participate, for some reason.

The Supremes have ruled: Write-in elections okay for judges

The 13th Circuit Court District lawsuit was decided today by the Mississippi Supreme Court.  I have not yet read the decision.  More to come!

I feel like the Count on Sesame Street

Every time I turn around, it seems as if another person has announced their candidacy.  Let's imagine that Judge Thomas is not elected on Tuesday.  We have at last count two candidates from Pearl River County, one from Marion County, and nine (not counting Judge Thomas) from Hattiesburg (Forrest and Lamar Counties).  The electoral math has been endlessly dissected by the candidates: 2500 votes may be enough to get into the runoff; 5,000 votes could possibly win outright, if turnout is depressed.

In 2006, the last year we had a wide-open seat (Post 4 was created that year), 45,839 voters cast votes in that election for Post 4.  2006 General Election results for Post 4.  I inexplicably got more votes in Pearl River County than anywhere else, which tells you something about either my name, or Pearl River County.  The Place 2 election that year, which was contested between Judge Dale, Win Pittman, and Jay Jernigan, had 46,017 votes cast.  2006 General Election results for Post 2.  The Post One race that year, which was uncontested, had 40,763 votes cast, all for Judge Thomas.  2006 General Election results for Post 1.  The Post Three race that year, also uncontested this year, had 40,695 votes cast.  2006 General Election results for Post 3. 

What does this mean for this year?  Well, Pearl River County has had the most growth in population since the previous election, although we won't know how much until after the election.  Forrest and Lamar Counties have both grown.  We can expect about a 45,000 voter turnout at least.  There may be more due to voter interest in the Taylor/Palazzo/Hampton race.

Of those votes, a plurality will likely be cast for Judge Thomas.  Back when there were only six candidates two weeks ago, Judge Thomas was expected to get a majority.  With a rumored twelve candidates, that expectation has shifted to Judge Thomas getting a plurality, but not winning outright.  Assuming Judge Thomas gets 50% of the vote, one vote shy of winning, that means that there are 22,500 votes to be divided twelve ways.  Since most of the candidates are from the Hattiesburg area, Forrest and Lamar Counties will likely not be electing this Judge.

Carey Scholars forum details

Friday at 1:30 pm at Wilkes Dining Hall on the Hattiesburg campus of William Carey University.  The public is invited to attend, and candidates are urged to bring supporters with them.  The program will run until 3 pm, and each candidate will be afforded 4-6 minutes, after the Secretary of State's office explains the write-in procedure to the attendees.  All major media outlets in the Pine Belt Area have been invited to attend.

This will be the last opportunity for each candidate to explain their positions on serving the public in this important role.

Hattiesburg American fails again.

The Hattiesburg American's vaunted news coverage continues its epic slide into irrelevance.  Each of the candidates was asked to submit pertinent information for a brief group profile piece.  It's apparent that the HA simply cut and pasted from each candidate's email response.  Only a few of the candidate webpage links work.

On the other hand, they did a nice job with the Post Two races.  But it's clear that the HA thinks that this write-in election is far less important than the higher-profile race for Judge Dale's seat.